When deciding between EB1A vs. EB2 NIW, one of the first questions many applicants ask is: “Which one has better chances of approval?”. Historically EB1A was viewed as tougher (higher bar) but perhaps with more predictable results; EB2 NIW offered a somewhat more flexible pathway. But the landscape is shifting. Recent data for 2025 show meaningful changes in approval rates, backlog, and USCIS scrutiny. So if you’re considering filing in 2025, understanding EB1A vs. EB2 NIW approval rate trends is more important than ever.
In the sections that follow we’ll unpack the latest data, compare EB1A and EB2 NIW trends side‑by‑side, and offer practical insights to help shape your strategy.
What do EB1A and EB2 NIW mean?
Before diving into trends, let’s quickly recap the two categories so we’re on the same page.
EB1A (Extraordinary Ability)
Under EB‑1A you can self‑petition (no employer sponsor required) if you can show sustained national or international acclaim in science, arts, business, education or athletics, and you intend to continue working in your field in the U.S.
Key benefits: no PERM labor certification required, and you can file your I‑140 directly.
Key challenge: the standard (“extraordinary ability”) is high and demands strong documentation.
EB2 NIW (National Interest Waiver)
Under EB‑2, if you have an advanced degree (or equivalent) and you request a “waiver” of the job offer/labor certification requirement because your work is in the U.S. national interest, you may file under NIW. The standard (from the landmark case Matter of Dhanasar) asks three prongs: (1) the proposed endeavor is of substantial merit and national importance, (2) you are well‐positioned to advance it, and (3) on balance, it would benefit the U.S. to waive the job offer.
Benefit: no employer required, and potentially less restrictive than EB‑1A.
Challenge: adjudication is increasingly stringent and backlog heavy.
Latest Approval‑Rate Data: EB1A vs EB2 NIW
Let’s look at what the data for 2024–2025 show about approval rates for both categories. These numbers help illustrate the EB1A vs. EB2 NIW approval rate trends you need to know.
EB1A Approval Rate Trends
- For Q1 FY2025 (Oct–Dec 2024), the EB‑1A I‑140 approval rate was reported around 74.9%.
- The category saw a surge: Q1 FY2025 had 7,338 petitions filed, up 56% quarter‑over‑quarter.
- Overall EB‑1 approval rate for all EB‑1 subcategories was ~79.7% in Q3 2025 (April–June) and ~83.5% year‑to‑date 2025.
- Although approvals remain decent, some sources report a drop: EB‑1A approval rate dropped from ~70.5% (FY2023) to ~60.6% (FY2024)
EB2 NIW Approval Rate Trends
- For EB2 NIW in Q1 FY2025, the approval rate is reported at approx 62.8%.
- For Q2 FY2025 it improved to ~67.3%.
- However, Q3 FY2025 for NIW reportedly dropped to ~54%.
- A sharp drop is noted for FY2024: ~43% approval for EB‑2 NIW with high pending/backlog.
- A key trend: denial rates for EB2 NIW now exceed EB‑1A denial rates.
Side by Side: Key Takeaways
- EB1A approval rate in early 2025: ~74.9% (Q1) and improving broadly.
- EB2 NIW approval rate in early 2025: ~62.8% (Q1), modestly higher in Q2, but trending downward in Q3.
- EB2 NIW category is facing higher denial rates than EB1A for the first time.
- While EB1A remains selective, the relative risk in EB2 NIW is increasing given the stricter scrutiny and backlog.
What’s Driving These Approval‑Rate Trends?
Understanding why the trends are changing helps you position your petition better. Here are the major forces behind the shifting EB1A vs EB2 NIW approval rate trends.
1. Increased Volume & Backlog
- For EB1A: filings jumped significantly, meaning heavier workload for USCIS.
- For EB2 NIW: filings have also soared in prior years, contributing to backlog.
- Backlog means longer processing times and often more Requests for Evidence (RFEs) or denials.
2. Stricter Adjudication Standards
- USCIS updated guidance on EB2 NIW in 2025 to clarify evaluation of “national interest” and job offer waivers, effectively tightening requirements.
- For EB1A, adjudicators continue to expect strong evidence of sustained acclaim; documentation must tell a compelling story.
3. Changing Denial Rates and Risk
- The denial rate for EB2 NIW in Q1 FY2025 is estimated at ~37.2%, while EB1A denial rate is ~25.1% in the same period.
- This reversal—where EB2 NIW may now be considered “riskier” in approval than EB1A is a crucial development.
4. Applicant Strategies and Category Preferences
- Some applicants who might have previously chosen EB2 NIW are now eyeing EB1A, especially if they have strong credentials.
- Greater volume in NIW petitions has prompted stricter filtering.
What 2025 Applicants Can Learn from These Trends
If you’re comparing EB1A vs EB2 NIW approval rate trends, understanding how to position your application can make a real difference. Here are some practical, easy-to-follow tips to help you strengthen your petition:
1. Pick the Category That Matches Your Profile
Think carefully about where you fit best.
- EB1A is ideal if you’ve achieved exceptional recognition—maybe international awards, publications in top journals, or major media coverage.
- EB2 NIW works better for professionals with advanced degrees whose work benefits the U.S. economy, health, culture, or education. If your impact is broad but not yet globally recognized, this may be your route.
2. Tell a Strong Story with Clear Evidence
Both categories require proof—but not just a list of achievements. You need to connect your evidence to your impact.
- For EB1A, highlight measurable results—citations, leadership roles, patents, or media features that show your influence in the field.
- For EB2 NIW, focus on why your work matters to the U.S. and how granting you a green card would advance national interests.
3. Be Mindful of Timing and Processing
The demand for both categories is growing, which can mean longer wait times. It’s best to apply as soon as you qualify.
- EB1A often offers faster processing, especially with premium processing available.
- EB2 NIW may take longer but could be more flexible if your field aligns with national priorities.
4. Plan Strategically
Your approach matters.
- For EB1A, show that your work continues to impact your field and benefits the U.S. directly.
- For EB2 NIW, emphasize your future potential—how your continued contributions will strengthen the country’s interests.
5. Avoid the Common Mistakes
Even strong candidates can stumble. Watch out for these pitfalls:
- Submitting weak or generic recommendation letters.
- Underestimating evidence requirements, especially for NIW cases.
- Choosing a category without evaluating your profile honestly.
Ignoring visa bulletin updates and timing considerations.
What to Expect in 2025: Forecasting Trends
- EB1A approval rate may remain stable or improve marginally if filings are strong.
- EB2 NIW approval rates may continue to face pressure.
- Visa‑availability and priority‑date issues may become more important.
- More applicants may pivot to EB1A as risk/benefit shifts.
- Documentation expectations continue to rise
FAQs
Q: What is the difference between EB1A vs EB2 NIW in terms of employer sponsorship?
A: Both allow self‑petitioning. EB1A requires extraordinary ability; EB2 NIW requires showing national interest benefit.
Q: Which category has a higher approval rate in 2025: EB1A or EB2 NIW?
A: EB1A approval rate (~74.9% for Q1) is higher than EB2 NIW (~62.8% for Q1).
Q: Does a lower approval rate for EB2 NIW mean I should always choose EB1A?
A: Not necessarily. EB1A has a higher standard; your choice should match your credentials.
Q: Are processing times longer because of the backlog?
A: Yes, especially for EB2 NIW with more pending cases.
Q: What should I do next to increase my chances? A: Evaluate your credentials, gather strong evidence, craft a clear narrative, and consult qualified immigration professionals.
Summary
If you’re considering filing either EB1A or EB2 NIW and want personalized guidance, our team of experienced immigration consultants is ready to assist. We can evaluate your profile, map out your strongest strategy, and help you understand the EB1A vs EB2 NIW approval rate trends in your context.
Book a consultation today and chart your best path for U.S. employment‑based immigration.
For official information on the EB-2 and NIW process, visit the USCIS website.
